OMV assesses its long-term resilience in a 1.5°C decarbonization scenario across its three business segments: Energy, Fuels, and Chemicals. Since Borealis is expected to be deconsolidated in 2026 and become part of Borouge Group International, it is therefore excluded from the analyses of the Strategy and Business Model. The analyses are performed in response to the material transition risk associated with delivering on OMV’s Strategy 2030. OMV’s upstream and downstream value chain is implicitly considered through commodity prices for feedstock and products, such as the material transition risk of higher value chain-related costs due to regulatory changes. This material risk is also explicitly considered as part of OMV’s Enterprise-Wide Risk Management (EWRM) process (see Management Review: Risk Management). The long-term resilience of OMV’s assets is not negatively affected by physical climate risks such as flooding and extreme heat, which are not considered material based on the results of OMV’s physical climate risk assessment (see ESRS 2: Physical Risks).
Scenarios
The development of OMV’s Strategy and Business Model including the analysis of its resilience is informed by various scenarios of the future market environment. These scenarios build on changes in supply and demand aligned with the International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios, as well as price assumptions informed by other external and internal market analysis. OMV’s base case builds on the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which is associated with a temperature increase of 2.4°C by 2100 (50% probability). Similarly, OMV APS is based on the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the net zero emissions by 2050 case (OMV NZE) is based on prices in line with the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario. APS is consistent with a temperature increase of 1.7°C and NZE with 1.5°C. For details on our market outlook scenarios and their underlying trends and assumptions, see Management Review: Market Environment, Note 3 – Effects of climate change and the energy transition, and the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024.
Method
OMV’s long-term resilience analysis comprises three elements: analysis of the Company’s (1) existing assets, (2) upcoming investments, and (3) Strategy and Business Model. For details on the first two elements see Note 3 – Effects of climate change and the energy transition, reported in line with IFRS requirements.
The third element is the resilience analysis of OMV’s strategy across its three business segments when also considering future assets. The first step of this analysis was the assessment of the operational (including product sales) and financial performance of OMV’s existing and potential future assets, building on an extension of the guiding principles of OMV’s Strategy 2030. The two scenarios considered in this context were OMV’s base case and OMV APS (see “Scenarios” box). To test its resilience, this future portfolio was then exposed to OMV NZE prices: Starting from OMV’s base case, sensitivitiesNote: Sensitivities applied for the resilience analysis of the strategy differ from those provided for the Company’s existing assets, as they are based on OMV’s future portfolio. Furthermore, due to the timing of the analysis, the sensitivity calculations from the preceding year had to be used as a starting point. for selected key market prices were calculated and applied, such as oil and gas prices. For each segment, the operating and free cash flows were determined and compared to OMV’s base case. In a second step, OMV reviewed the assumption of also being able to maintain the forecast base case sales volumes in the OMV NZE scenario. The resilience assessment excludes any mitigation measures in response to the outcome of this analysis, such as changes in production, investments, or divestments. In line with OMV’s 2040 climate targets and sustainability impact and risk management process, the analysis covered the time period from 2026 to 2040. The analysis was concluded in September 2025.
Findings
The resilience analysis of OMV’s Strategy and Business Model demonstrated OMV’s ability to deliver on its Strategy 2030. It confirmed the expected resilience of OMV’s future portfolio in the OMV NZE scenario with positive operating and free cash flow across all three business segments throughout the period 2026 to 2040. For details on uncertainties regarding the assumptions, see Note 3 – Effects of climate change and the energy transition.
Maintaining a Competitive Business
These results confirm that OMV’s Strategy 2030 is robust. Its adaptability is ensured by incorporating regular scenario analyses into planning processes such as the annual mid-term plans. This allows OMV to adjust its strategic priorities in response to evolving regulatory, technological, and market conditions. OMV’s three business segments are central to evolving OMV’s product portfolio in line with the Company’s Decarbonization Levers, supported by significant CAPEX allocated to sustainable action across all segments (see Investments in Support of the Transition Plan). OMV’s decarbonization ambitions leverage the existing skills of its workforce to develop lower carbon solutions. For example, expertise in exploration and production is utilized for the development of geothermal energy. Furthermore, key assets such as OMV’s refineries are being upgraded to meet future demand for sustainable products, such as through ReOil® (for details, see Management Review: Innovation and Technology). OMV’s strategic and climate targets are supported by its finance framework, which aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and secure a robust investment-grade credit rating. OMV aims for broad diversification of its investor base and funding sources and continuously assesses ESG-aligned funding options to maintain access to funding and liquidity at attractive rates, in line with market developments. By leveraging its diverse portfolio and advancing decarbonization, OMV is well positioned to achieve sustainable growth and maintain competitiveness through 2040.