As a result of the binding agreement between OMV and ADNOC for the combination of Borouge and Borealis into Borouge Group International and the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals, the outlook for 2026 excludes all Borealis-related effects.
Market Environment
OMV anticipates that the average Brent crude oil price will be around USD 65/bbl (2025: USD 69/bbl). The average realized gas price is expected to be below EUR 30/MWh (2025: EUR 30/MWh), with a THE price forecast of above EUR 30/MWh (2025: EUR 37/MWh).
Group
- Organic CAPEX is projected to come in at around EUR 3.2 bn (2025: EUR 3.7 bn).
Energy
- OMV expects total hydrocarbon production to be slightly below 300 kboe/d (2025: 305 kboe/d), assuming uninterrupted operations in Libya.
- Production cost at OMV Group level is expected to be below USD 11/bbl (2025: USD 10.6/bbl).
- Organic CAPEX for Energy is anticipated to come in at around EUR 1.9 bn (2025: EUR 1.9 bn).
- Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) expenditure is expected to be below EUR 200 mn (2025: EUR 148 mn).
Fuels
- The OMV refining indicator margin Europe is expected to be around USD 8/bbl (2025: USD 10.1/bbl).
- The utilization rate of the European refineries is expected to be above 90% (2025: 89%).
- Fuels and other sales volumes in OMV’s markets in Europe are projected to be higher than in the previous year (2025: 16.4 mn t). Commercial margins are predicted to be lower than those in 2025. Retail margins are expected to be slightly lower than the 2025 level.
- Organic CAPEX for Fuels is forecast at around EUR 1.1 bn (2025: EUR 0.9 bn).
Chemicals
- The ethylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 550/t (2025: EUR 569/t). The propylene indicator margin Europe is forecast to be around EUR 420/t (2025: EUR 445/t).
- The steam cracker utilization rate is expected to be around 90% (2025: 82%).Starting with 2026, cracker utilization rate excludes Borealis crackers.
- Organic CAPEX for Chemicals is predicted to be around EUR 0.1 bn (2025: EUR 1.0 bn).
For information about the longer-term outlook, see the Strategy chapter.
Based on its integrated business model and risk management capabilities, OMV remains resilient in navigating global market dynamics, including current developments in the Middle East. However, given the inherent market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, fluctuations are expected to persist in the near term. At this stage, OMV considers it premature to adjust its overall market outlook; OMV continues to monitor the situation closely. For further details on the developments in the Middle East please refer to the Consolidated Financial Statements (Note 36 – Subsequent Events).