Outlook 2025

Market Environment

OMV anticipates that the average Brent crude oil price will be approximately USD 75/bbl (2024: USD 81/bbl). The average realized gas price is expected to be around EUR 35/MWh (2024: EUR 25/MWh), with a THE price forecast of between EUR 40/MWh and EUR 45/MWh (2024: EUR 35/MWh).

Group

• Organic CAPEX is projected to come in at around EUR 3.6 bn (2024: EUR 3.7 bn), including non-cash leases of around EUR 0.1 bn.

Chemicals

• The ethylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 520/t (2024: EUR 505/t). The propylene indicator margin Europe is forecast to be at a similar level as in 2024 (2024: EUR 384/t).
• The polyethylene indicator margin Europe is forecast to be above EUR 400/t (2024: EUR 432/t). The polypropylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be above EUR 400/t (2024: EUR 402/t).
• The steam cracker utilization rate in Europe is expected to be around 90% (2024: 84%).
• Polyolefin sales volumes excluding JVs are projected to be around 4.1 mn t (2024: 3.9 mn t).
• Organic CAPEX for Chemicals is predicted to be around EUR 0.9 bn (2024: EUR 1.0 bn).

Fuels & Feedstock

• The OMV refining indicator margin Europe is expected to be around USD 6/bbl (2024: USD 7.1/bbl).
• The utilization rate of the European refineries is expected to be between 85% and 90% (2024: 87%).
• Fuels and other sales volumes in OMV’s markets in Europe are projected to be higher than in 2024. (2024: 16.2 mn t).
• Commercial margins are predicted to be lower than those in 2024. Retail margins are expected to be slightly below the 2024 level.
• Organic CAPEX for Fuels & Feedstock is forecast at around EUR 0.7 bn (2024: EUR 0.8 bn).

Energy

• OMV expects total hydrocarbon production to be around 300 kboe/d (2024: 340 kboe/d), assuming uninterrupted operations in Libya.
• Production cost is expected to be around USD 11/bbl (2024: USD 10/bbl).
• Organic CAPEX for Energy is anticipated to come in at around EUR 1.9 bn (2024: EUR 1.8 bn).
• Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) expenditure is expected to be around EUR 220 mn (2024: EUR 229 mn).

For information about the longer-term outlook, see the Strategy and Market Environment chapters.